I’ve updated the analysis using the actual Matchday 3 results, the current Bundesliga table, Matchday 4 fixtures, recent form, scoring/conceding rates, home/away context, and the latest available injury/suspension information as of September 16, 2026. The official DFB schedule confirms all nine Matchday 4 fixtures from September 18–20.
🇩🇪 Bundesliga — Matchday 4 Predictions
Germany time (CEST)
# Date Match My Predicted Score Prediction
1 Fri Sep 18 Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin 3–0 Bayern Munich
2 Sat Sep 19 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg 1–2 Freiburg
3 Sat Sep 19 Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz 05 1–2 Mainz
4 Sat Sep 19 Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln 1–2 Köln
5 Sat Sep 19 Werder Bremen vs Augsburg 1–2 Augsburg
6 Sat Sep 19 VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Dortmund
7 Sun Sep 20 Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig 2–2 Draw
8 Sun Sep 20 Schalke 04 vs Elversberg 2–2 Draw
9 Sun Sep 20 Paderborn vs Hoffenheim 1–2 Hoffenheim
The current table has Freiburg and Dortmund level at 9 points, Augsburg and Bayern on 7, Leipzig and Elversberg on 6, and Leverkusen/Mainz/Frankfurt/Bremen/Schalke/Köln on 4. At the bottom, Paderborn have 1 point, Union 1, Gladbach 0 and Hamburg 0.
1. Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
Prediction: Bayern Munich 3–0 Union Berlin
Bayern enter this one with seven points from three matches and a 7–2 goal difference. Their start hasn't been completely smooth, but the 2–1 victory at Elversberg demonstrated an important characteristic: even when Bayern aren't at their best, they have enough attacking quality to eventually break a game open. Harry Kane scored the decisive goal in that match.
Union's situation is considerably more difficult. They lost 1–3 at home to Schalke in Matchday 3 and now travel to Munich. That leaves them with only one point from three matches and a 4–10 goal difference.
There are also personnel concerns for Union. Juranović has been dealing with illness, while Burke and Ilić remain unavailable; Nsoki is doubtful.
Bayern's projected lineup contains Kane, Musiala, Olise and Luis Díaz, giving them a substantial attacking advantage.
Why 3–0: Union have conceded 10 goals already, while Bayern's attack should have substantially more control at the Allianz Arena. I expect Union to defend deeper and Bayern to gradually overwhelm them.
Projected: Bayern 3–0 Union
2. Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg
Prediction: Frankfurt 1–2 Freiburg
This is one of the more interesting games of the weekend.
Freiburg are the early league leaders with 9 points and a remarkable 10–1 goal difference after three matches. They have won all three games, including a spectacular 5–0 demolition of Gladbach last weekend.
Frankfurt finally got their first victory in Matchday 3, beating Mainz 3–1, with Can Uzun scoring twice. That result brought Frankfurt to four points.
So Frankfurt are improving, but Freiburg have been substantially more consistent defensively. A 10–1 goal difference after three games is particularly significant.
Freiburg's projected XI is also relatively healthy, with only Muslija listed out. Frankfurt have Knauff and Ngankam out and Højlund doubtful.
Why 2–1: Frankfurt should create enough at home to score, but Freiburg's current balance between defense and attack makes them difficult to contain.
Projected: Frankfurt 1–2 Freiburg
3. Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz 05
Prediction: Gladbach 1–2 Mainz
This is a very difficult environment for Gladbach.
They have lost all three matches and have conceded 12 goals, the worst defensive record in the league. Their latest result was a crushing 0–5 defeat against Freiburg.
The club has already changed managers, with Jan-Moritz Lichte now taking charge following Eugen Polanski's departure.
Mainz, meanwhile, have four points and a +3 goal difference despite losing 1–3 to Frankfurt last weekend. Their earlier results included a 5–0 win over Hamburg, so their attacking ceiling is significantly higher than Gladbach's current defensive stability.
Gladbach also lose Kleindienst through suspension for this match.
Why 2–1: The new-manager effect could make Gladbach much more competitive, especially at home. But Mainz currently have the more reliable overall structure.
Projected: Gladbach 1–2 Mainz
4. Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln
Prediction: Hamburg 1–2 Köln
Hamburg are in serious trouble statistically.
After three matches they have 0 points and 0 goals scored, while conceding 12. Their latest match was a 0–5 defeat against Leipzig.
Köln aren't dominant, but they are much more competitive. They have four points and five goals, and their latest result was a 1–1 draw with Bremen.
This is essentially a matchup between a Hamburg attack that has not scored yet and a Köln side that has already demonstrated the ability to score consistently enough to compete.
Why 2–1: Hamburg's home advantage should help them finally find a goal, but Köln have considerably more evidence of attacking reliability.
Projected: Hamburg 1–2 Köln
5. Werder Bremen vs Augsburg
Prediction: Bremen 1–2 Augsburg
Augsburg have quietly put together one of the strongest starts in the league.
They have 7 points from three matches, with nine goals scored and only three conceded. Their only dropped points came in the 2–2 draw against Leverkusen.
That is particularly impressive because Augsburg had already beaten Schalke and Frankfurt before holding Leverkusen.
Bremen have four points after three matches and drew Köln 1–1 last weekend.
Augsburg do have some injury concerns, including Kade and Suso, but their projected lineup remains competitive.
Why 2–1: Bremen should make this uncomfortable, but Augsburg's early-season attacking efficiency gives them the edge.
Projected: Bremen 1–2 Augsburg
6. VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
prediction: Stuttgart 1–2 Dortmund
This is my second-biggest game of Matchday 4.
Dortmund are perfect so far: three wins, nine points, 8–2 goal difference. They defeated Paderborn 3–0 last weekend and have looked increasingly convincing.
The attacking combination of Guirassy, Fábio Silva, Nmecha and the surrounding midfield has been producing enough chances to make Dortmund dangerous throughout matches.
Stuttgart are 1–0–2 with a 6–8 goal difference. They beat Köln 4–1 but subsequently lost to Hoffenheim 1–2.
Dortmund do have some absences, including Can and several players listed as injured or doubtful, but their recent performance level remains strong.
Why 2–1: Stuttgart's home environment makes this much harder than Dortmund's previous fixture, but Dortmund's current defensive and attacking consistency gives them the advantage.
Projected: Stuttgart 1–2 Dortmund
7. Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Prediction: Leverkusen 2–2 Leipzig
Draw
This could be the highest-quality tactical matchup of the weekend.
Leverkusen have four points after three games and have scored eight goals. They held Augsburg to a 2–2 draw last weekend after earlier beating Union Berlin 4–0.
Leipzig also have six points and a 9–3 goal difference. Most importantly, they just destroyed Hamburg 5–0, which suggests their attacking confidence is rising rapidly.
Both teams have considerable attacking quality, but neither has yet established the defensive consistency of Freiburg or Dortmund.
Leverkusen's projected attack includes Schick, Diaby, Tillman and Maza, while Leipzig have Nkunku, Gomis and Nusa among their projected attacking options.
Why 2–2: This is the game where I see the greatest probability of both teams scoring multiple times. Home advantage favors Leverkusen, while Leipzig's current attacking momentum offsets it.
Projected: Leverkusen 2–2 Leipzig
8. Schalke 04 vs Elversberg
Prediction: Schalke 2–2 Elversberg
Draw
This is probably the most unpredictable fixture.
Schalke suddenly exploded into life in Matchday 3, winning 3–1 away at Union Berlin. That gave them four points and ended a long Bundesliga goal drought.
Elversberg have also been one of the season's biggest surprises. Before facing Bayern, they had beaten both Leverkusen and Gladbach. They eventually lost 1–2 to Bayern, but they were competitive and even took the lead.
So this is not a straightforward newly-promoted-team matchup. Both teams have demonstrated that they can score.
Schalke are also at home, while Elversberg have shown that they are capable of attacking strong opponents.
Why 2–2: Schalke's recent momentum plus home advantage versus Elversberg's attacking confidence makes a high-scoring draw the most logical scoreline for me.
Projected: Schalke 2–2 Elversberg
9. SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim
Prediction: Paderborn 1–2 Hoffenheim
Paderborn have had a difficult introduction to the Bundesliga. After three games they have only one point and have scored zero goals, with four conceded.
They lost 0–3 to Dortmund last weekend, although Dortmund are one of the strongest teams in the league so far.
Hoffenheim, on the other hand, finally recorded their first win in Matchday 3, beating Stuttgart 2–1. That moved them to three points.
This is an important opportunity for Hoffenheim to build momentum.
Why 2–1: Paderborn's home advantage should help them produce a better attacking performance than their first three games, but Hoffenheim have more proven attacking production.
Projected: Paderborn 1–2 Hoffenheim
🎯 My Final Matchday 4 Score Predictions
# Match AI Prediction
1 Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin 3–0
2 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg 1–2
3 Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz 05 1–2
4 Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln 1–2
5 Werder Bremen vs Augsburg 1–2
6 VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund 1–2
7 Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig 2–2 — Draw
8 Schalke 04 vs Elversberg 2–2 — Draw
9 SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim 1–2
🔥 My strongest score calls
Bayern 3–0 Union
Dortmund 2–1 Stuttgart
Freiburg 2–1 Frankfurt
Leverkusen 2–2 Leipzig
One particularly important update from the previous Matchday 3 discussion: the actual results changed the picture substantially. Freiburg are now 3–0–0 with 10:1 goals, Dortmund 3–0–0 with 8:2, while Leipzig jumped to 9:3 after beating Hamburg 5–0. That is why I have weighted those three teams differently from the pre-Matchday-3 projections.