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I’ve updated the analysis using the actual Matchweek 4 results, rather than relying on the pre-Week-4 form we used for the previous prediction set. That matters quite a bit this week.
Matchweek 4 produced several major changes: Arsenal and Manchester City remained perfect; Brighton destroyed Coventry 5–0; Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa 2–1; Ipswich beat Crystal Palace 3–2; Liverpool were held 0–0 by Fulham; Chelsea drew 2–2 with Hull; and Tottenham drew 0–0 with Everton.
The official Premier League schedule confirms Matchweek 5 runs Friday September 18 through Sunday September 20, 2026, with Brentford–Chelsea opening the round.
Premier League Matchweek 5 — My Predictions
# Date Match Predicted Score
1 Sep 18 Brentford vs Chelsea 1–1 DRAW
2 Sep 19 Tottenham vs Aston Villa 1–0 Tottenham
3 Sep 19 Brighton vs Arsenal 1–2 Arsenal
4 Sep 19 Everton vs Ipswich Town 1–1 DRAW
5 Sep 19 Newcastle United vs Hull City 2–1 Newcastle
6 Sep 19 Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City 2–0 Nottingham Forest
7 Sep 20 Bournemouth vs Liverpool 1–2 Liverpool
8 Sep 20 Leeds United vs Crystal Palace 2–1 Leeds
9 Sep 20 Manchester City vs Sunderland 3–0 Manchester City
10 Sep 20 Fulham vs Manchester United 1–2 Manchester United
1. Brentford vs Chelsea — 1–1 DRAW
This is one of the most difficult games of the round.
Brentford remain unbeaten after four matches, while Chelsea have already shown both sides of their game: significant attacking ability but defensive vulnerability. Chelsea's 2–2 home draw against Hull was particularly revealing because they conceded twice despite controlling much of the attacking play.
Brentford also drew Bournemouth 2–2 in Week 4, so their ability to compete in open games is established.
Chelsea have the greater individual attacking quality, but Brentford's home advantage and current unbeaten run make this difficult to call.
Prediction: Brentford 1–1 Chelsea — DRAW
2. Tottenham vs Aston Villa — 1–0 Tottenham
This is a fascinating matchup because both clubs are still looking for their first league win.
Tottenham have now gone four league matches without scoring. Their 0–0 draw with Everton extended that extraordinary drought.
Villa are also winless and are coming off a damaging 2–1 home defeat against Nottingham Forest.
However, Tottenham now get home advantage, and Villa's attacking output has been extremely limited. This looks much more likely to be a low-scoring tactical game than an open contest.
I'm giving Spurs a narrow edge simply because they desperately need a response at home.
Prediction: Tottenham 1–0 Aston Villa
3. Brighton vs Arsenal — 1–2 Arsenal
This is arguably the most interesting game of the weekend.
Brighton enter the match after an enormous 5–0 victory over Coventry, demonstrating just how dangerous their attack can be.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are still perfect at 4–0 and sit at the top after four matches. Their latest 2–0 victory over Sunderland was another clean-sheet performance.
Brighton's home advantage should make this considerably harder than Arsenal's previous fixture, but Arsenal have shown the greater defensive consistency.
I expect Brighton to score, but Arsenal's overall balance gives them the edge.
Prediction: Brighton 1–2 Arsenal
4. Everton vs Ipswich Town — 1–1 DRAW
Everton are unbeaten and have now produced consecutive draws after their 0–0 against Tottenham.
Ipswich are the surprise team coming into this fixture. They defeated Crystal Palace 3–2 away from home, with a stoppage-time winner.
That result makes Ipswich much harder to dismiss than their early-season reputation might suggest.
Everton's defence should make this difficult for Ipswich, while Ipswich's confidence is now high.
Prediction: Everton 1–1 Ipswich — DRAW
5. Newcastle United vs Hull City — 2–1 Newcastle
Hull have been one of the biggest early surprises.
They held Chelsea to a 2–2 draw at Stamford Bridge and remain unbeaten after four matches.
Newcastle, however, have home advantage and need to respond after their inconsistent opening four matches.
The biggest question is whether Hull's defensive organisation can continue against Newcastle's greater attacking depth.
I expect Hull to make this competitive, but Newcastle should eventually create enough chances at St James' Park.
Prediction: Newcastle 2–1 Hull
6. Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City — 2–0 Nottingham Forest
Forest come into this one with significant momentum.
Their 2–1 victory at Aston Villa was their first win there in 32 years, and it came through a late Igor Jesus goal.
Coventry, by contrast, were demolished 5–0 by Brighton in Week 4. That is an especially concerning result because they have now lost all four league matches.
Forest's home advantage plus the enormous difference in recent defensive performances points toward a fairly controlled home victory.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 2–0 Coventry
7. Bournemouth vs Liverpool — 1–2 Liverpool
Liverpool's 0–0 draw against Fulham was a warning sign.
They remain one of the league's strongest teams on paper, but the lack of freshness and attacking sharpness was noticeable in Week 4. Liverpool's manager Andoni Iraola also acknowledged the lack of freshness after the Fulham match.
Bournemouth are still searching for their first win and drew Brentford 2–2.
At home, Bournemouth can cause Liverpool problems, particularly if Liverpool again struggle to move the ball quickly.
Nevertheless, Liverpool possess more attacking quality and should have enough to win a close match.
Prediction: Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool
8. Leeds United vs Crystal Palace — 2–1 Leeds
Leeds are one of the most interesting teams in the current table. They have started 2–0 and therefore remain unbeaten after four matches.
Palace, meanwhile, suffered a major setback against Ipswich, losing 3–2 after conceding the late winner.
That defensive collapse is important here because Leeds have already demonstrated that they can score multiple goals.
Elland Road should also give Leeds a significant boost.
Prediction: Leeds 2–1 Crystal Palace
9. Manchester City vs Sunderland — 3–0 Manchester City
City are still perfect at 4–0, and this is one of the biggest statistical mismatches of the weekend.
Sunderland have shown they can compete, but Arsenal defeated them 2–0 in Week 4.
City's combination of possession, attacking depth and defensive control should create a difficult evening for Sunderland.
I don't expect Sunderland to sit completely without threat, but City should eventually take control.
Prediction: Manchester City 3–0 Sunderland
10. Fulham vs Manchester United — 1–2 Manchester United
This is another game where the Week 4 results significantly change the calculation.
Fulham managed an excellent 0–0 draw at Liverpool, demonstrating that their defensive organisation can frustrate stronger opposition.
United, meanwhile, lost the Manchester derby 1–0 to City and remain inconsistent. Their current record is 1–2 after four matches.
But this is an important opportunity for United to respond.
Fulham's defensive structure should keep the score close, but I expect United's attacking quality to eventually produce the difference.
Prediction: Fulham 1–2 Manchester United
? My strongest exact-score selections
If I had to identify the predictions where the scoreline itself has the clearest statistical reasoning behind it, I'd focus on:
Manchester City 3–0 Sunderland
Nottingham Forest 2–0 Coventry
Tottenham 1–0 Aston Villa
Newcastle 2–1 Hull
Brighton 1–2 Arsenal
The most difficult games to predict are Brentford–Chelsea, Everton–Ipswich, and Leeds–Crystal Palace because the recent results have introduced substantial uncertainty.