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This slate has **16 matches**, not 15. The weekend round (Oct 24–25) is exactly 15 games, but Cincinnati and D.C. also play a separate midweek match on Wednesday, Oct 21, and then meet again on Saturday. I've predicted both. Model win probabilities were available for 9 games, and the rest rely on standings and recent form.
## Scoreboard (all times ET)
| # | Home | Score | Away | Kickoff (ET) | Date |
|---|---|:---:|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Cincinnati | 2 – 1 | D.C. United | 7:00 PM | Wed, Oct 21 |
| 2 | CF Montréal | 1 – 3 | Nashville SC | 1:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew | 2 – 0 | Toronto FC | 3:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 4 | NY Red Bulls | 1 – 2 | Inter Miami | 5:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 5 | Atlanta United | 1 – 2 | Chicago Fire | 7:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 6 | D.C. United | 1 – 1 | FC Cincinnati | 7:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 2 – 1 | NYCFC | 7:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Union | 2 – 1 | New England Revolution | 7:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 9 | FC Dallas | 2 – 1 | San Jose Earthquakes | 8:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 10 | Houston Dynamo | 2 – 1 | Minnesota United | 8:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 11 | Sporting KC | 2 – 2 | Austin FC | 8:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 1 – 2 | St. Louis City | 9:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 13 | Colorado Rapids | 1 – 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 9:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 14 | San Diego FC | 1 – 2 | Seattle Sounders | 10:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 15 | Portland Timbers | 1 – 2 | Charlotte FC | 10:30 PM | Sat, Oct 24 |
| 16 | LAFC | 2 – 1 | LA Galaxy | 9:00 PM | Sun, Oct 25 |
**Totals:** 7 home wins, 7 away wins, 2 draws.
## Game-by-Game Analysis
**1. Cincinnati vs D.C. (2-1, Wed).** Cincinnati is a strong favorite (58.3/21.0/20.7), though it just lost 0-2 at Columbus and sits 19th (36 pts). D.C. (26th) was beaten 4-1 at Orlando and has only 7 wins all year. D.C.'s 12 draws keep the margin tight, but I expect Cincinnati to win at home.
**2. Montréal vs Nashville (1-3).** Nashville is a heavy road favorite (58.7%) with a 20-3-7 record and 67 points, the best in MLS. Its 1-1 draw at San Jose was only its second non-win in a while. Montréal (6-17-7, 30th in the East) just drew 1-1 at Seattle, so it can score, but its defense has been brutal against good teams.
**3. Columbus vs Toronto (2-0).** Columbus is a clear favorite (60.1/19.4/20.5) and has momentum after a 2-0 win at Cincinnati. Toronto (8-10-12) draws constantly, so a low-scoring result is likely. The home side should be a bit sharper.
**4. NY Red Bulls vs Inter Miami (1-2).** Miami is favored (48.8/29.1/22.1) and is 3rd overall (15-5-10, 55 pts). The Red Bulls scored 4 against San Diego earlier this month but are 18th (10-14-6) and give up goals to good attacks. I expect Miami to win a competitive game on the road.
**5. Atlanta vs Chicago (1-2).** The model calls this nearly even (38.0/37.1/24.9). Atlanta is 28th (8-16-6), while Chicago is 4th in the East (14-10-6, 48 pts) and beat Philadelphia and NYC recently. Chicago's better form gives it the edge.
**6. D.C. vs Cincinnati (1-1, rematch).** This is the second meeting in four days, now in Washington. D.C. has the most draws in MLS and Cincinnati has scored just once in its last two outings. I expect a cagey draw.
**7. Orlando vs NYCFC (2-1).** Orlando is favored (41.3/34.5/24.2) and has momentum after a 4-1 win over D.C. NYC (8-12-10) drew 1-1 with LAFC and remains a draw-prone side. Orlando's home form should be the difference.
**8. Philadelphia vs New England (2-1).** Philadelphia is a big favorite (62.7/17.5/19.8) and has a strong home scoring record. New England is 4th overall (16-10-4) but has been inconsistent, with two heavy 0-3 losses earlier this month. I expect Philadelphia to win but concede once.
**9. Dallas vs San Jose (2-1).** Dallas is favored (52.6/24.1/23.3) and is 3rd in the West (14-7-9). It beat Seattle 1-0 and drew 2-2 at Houston. San Jose (13-8-9) just drew 1-1 with Nashville and ties a lot, so Dallas gets a narrow home win.
**10. Houston vs Minnesota (2-1).** Houston is favored (46.5/27.9/25.6) but has drawn 2-2 in its last two games, including at Dallas. Minnesota (8-12-10) also drew 2-2 against Houston earlier this month. I lean toward Houston's quality at home.
**11. Sporting KC vs Austin (2-2).** These are two of the league's bottom three sides (Sporting KC 22 pts, Austin 31 pts) and both defend poorly. Sporting KC scored in bunches earlier (3-3 with Portland), and Austin has drawn 10 times. I expect a goal-heavy draw.
**12. Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis (1-2).** St. Louis is 2nd in the West (14-7-9) and beat Montréal-level opposition easily, including a 6-2 win over LA. Real Salt Lake just won 3-1 at Sporting KC, so it has some life, but I favor St. Louis on the road.
**13. Colorado vs Vancouver (1-2).** Vancouver leads the West (55 pts) and beat Austin 2-1 on Oct 18. Colorado (11-13-6) just drew 0-0 at Portland, and its home defense has been shaky. Vancouver's quality should tell, with Colorado getting one back.
**14. San Diego vs Seattle (1-2).** San Diego (8-12-10) has drawn two of its last three, including 2-2 at LA. Seattle is mid-pack but sound defensively, apart from a 0-1 loss at Dallas and a 1-1 draw with Montréal. I give Seattle a narrow road edge.
**15. Portland vs Charlotte (1-2).** Portland (22nd, 9-14-7) was held 0-0 by Colorado and has only one win in its last seven. Charlotte is 5th in the East (13-9-8, 47 pts) and is the more complete side, so I pick Charlotte on the road.
**16. LAFC vs LA Galaxy (2-1).** LAFC (12-9-10, 46 pts) is 6th in the West and has been steady with a 1-1 draw at NYC. LA is 8th (10-11-10) and just drew 2-2 with San Diego. LAFC's stronger defense and home advantage should decide the derby, though LA will score.