I’ve updated the analysis using the actual results through Matchday 4, the current standings, recent scoring/defensive records, home/away form, managerial changes, European-match workload, and the latest team-news information available as of September 16, 2026.
The official Matchday 5 schedule begins Friday, September 18, with Monza–Sassuolo, and runs through Sunday, September 20.
🇮🇹 Serie A — Week 5 Predictions
September 18–20, 2026 — CEST
# Date & Time (CEST) Match Predicted Score
1 Fri 18 Sep — 19:45 Monza vs Sassuolo 1–2
2 Sat 19 Sep — 14:00 Bologna vs Torino 1–1
3 Sat 19 Sep — 14:00 Udinese vs Cagliari 1–1
4 Sat 19 Sep — 18:00 Roma vs Inter 1–1
5 Sat 19 Sep — 19:45 Venezia vs Lazio 0–2
6 Sun 20 Sep — 11:30 Fiorentina vs Napoli 1–2
7 Sun 20 Sep — 14:00 Frosinone vs Como 1–2
8 Sun 20 Sep — 14:00 Parma vs Genoa 1–1
9 Sun 20 Sep — 17:00 Juventus vs Atalanta 2–1
10 Sun 20 Sep — 19:45 Milan vs Lecce 2–0
The current table after four matches has Roma and Inter on 12 points, followed by Como and Lazio on 10, with Cagliari on 9 and Milan on 8.
1. Monza vs Sassuolo
Friday, September 18 — 19:45 CEST
Prediction: Monza 1–2 Sassuolo
This is a very interesting opener because the teams are coming into the match in completely different moods.
Monza have only one point from four matches, with six goals scored and 11 conceded. Sassuolo, meanwhile, have seven points and eight goals, and their latest performance was particularly impressive: they defeated Juventus 3–2 after scoring twice in the final stages.
Sassuolo's attack has shown more reliability, while Monza have been conceding too frequently. The biggest concern for Sassuolo is that their defensive record is hardly dominant either — seven goals conceded in four.
I expect Monza to score at home, but Sassuolo's attacking confidence after beating Juventus should carry them through.
Prediction: Monza 1–2 Sassuolo
2. Bologna vs Torino
Saturday, September 19 — 14:00 CEST
Prediction: Bologna 1–1 Torino
This is one of the hardest matches to call.
Bologna have just undergone a major coaching change. Domenico Tedesco was dismissed after four matches, with Raffaele Palladino appointed on September 16. Bologna had managed only two goals in those four league matches.
Palladino brings Serie A experience from Monza, Fiorentina and Atalanta, but he has had essentially no preparation time for this match. That makes Bologna tactically difficult to project.
Torino have three points and have already shown they can cause problems away from home. Their most recent league victory was a 2–1 win at Fiorentina before losing 0–2 to Roma.
The new-manager effect could give Bologna more energy, but Torino's greater tactical continuity should prevent a home victory.
Prediction: Bologna 1–1 Torino
3. Udinese vs Cagliari
Saturday, September 19 — 14:00 CEST
Prediction: Udinese 1–1 Cagliari
Cagliari have quietly made one of the strongest starts in the league.
They sit fifth with nine points, having won three of their first four matches. Their defense has been particularly impressive: only two goals conceded.
Udinese are much more volatile. They have scored eight but conceded ten, including the extraordinary 5–3 defeat to Inter.
That eight-goal Inter match is important: Udinese demonstrated that they can create chances, but their defensive structure can break down badly against sustained pressure.
Cagliari's defensive organization should keep this close, while Udinese's home advantage gives them enough attacking potential to find a goal.
Prediction: Udinese 1–1 Cagliari
4. Roma vs Inter
Saturday, September 19 — 18:00 CEST
Prediction: Roma 1–1 Inter
🔥 Match of the Week
This is easily the most difficult game of the round.
Both teams have 12 points from four matches and perfect league records. Roma have scored 12 and conceded just one; Inter have scored 13 but conceded six.
Roma's defensive numbers are exceptional. Their Serie A results include:
4–0 Fiorentina
4–0 Lecce
2–1 Atalanta
2–0 Torino
Inter's attack, however, has been extremely productive. They came back from 0–2 against Napoli to win 3–2 and then came from 0–2 down against Udinese to win 5–3.
There are also workload considerations. Roma have European football in the schedule, while Inter are balancing Champions League commitments as well. Roma drew Fenerbahçe 1–1 in their European opener, while Inter lost 2–1 to Real Madrid.
The tactical battle is fascinating:
Roma: stronger defense, home advantage, excellent start.
Inter: more explosive attack, greater ability to score multiple goals.
The numbers point toward a very tight match. I don't expect Roma's defense to collapse, but Inter have enough attacking quality to score.
Prediction: Roma 1–1 Inter
5. Venezia vs Lazio
Saturday, September 19 — 19:45 CEST
Prediction: Venezia 0–2 Lazio
Venezia are currently bottom of Serie A with zero points from four matches and an 11–4 goal differential.
Their latest game was a 2–4 home defeat to Fiorentina, despite taking the lead during the match.
Lazio, by contrast, are fourth with 10 points. They've conceded only three goals in four games.
The Lazio defense should be able to handle Venezia's attack, while Lazio's more controlled approach makes a high-scoring match unlikely.
Venezia have conceded at least twice in several matches already, and Lazio don't need to take unnecessary risks.
Prediction: Venezia 0–2 Lazio
6. Fiorentina vs Napoli
Sunday, September 20 — 11:30 CEST
Prediction: Fiorentina 1–2 Napoli
This is a much more complicated fixture than the league table initially suggests.
Fiorentina started the season disastrously, losing their first three matches, which resulted in Fabio Grosso being dismissed. Paolo Vanoli has now returned as Fiorentina's coach, and the first match of his new spell produced an immediate 4–2 victory over Venezia.
Franco Mastantuono was particularly influential in that match, scoring three goals.
Napoli are only on six points after four games, but their underlying squad quality remains considerably higher than their position suggests. They finally ended a three-match losing streak by beating Bologna 1–0, with Stanislav Lobotka scoring the winner.
However, Napoli still have important injury concerns. Scott McTominay, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa and goalkeeper Alex Meret were reported sidelined, while Kevin De Bruyne left the Bologna game with cramps; Allegri subsequently said the problem was not serious.
Fiorentina's new-manager momentum makes this dangerous for Napoli, but Napoli have the superior overall squad and should create enough chances to win narrowly.
Prediction: Fiorentina 1–2 Napoli
7. Frosinone vs Como
Sunday, September 20 — 14:00 CEST
Prediction: Frosinone 1–2 Como
This is one of the more intriguing matches statistically.
Frosinone have seven points and have scored seven while conceding four. Como are even stronger statistically: 10 points, nine goals scored and only four conceded.
Como have also won their last three league matches and moved into third place.
The major factor is Como's attacking consistency. They have scored in all four matches and already produced wins against stronger opposition, including the 2–1 victory over Napoli.
Frosinone's home advantage should make this competitive, but Como's current combination of attacking production and defensive stability gives them the edge.
Prediction: Frosinone 1–2 Como
8. Parma vs Genoa
Sunday, September 20 — 14:00 CEST
Prediction: Parma 1–1 Genoa
This is another relegation-pressure type of fixture.
Both teams have just one point after four matches.
Parma's record is:
0W–1D–3L, 2 GF, 6 GA
Genoa:
0W–1D–3L, 2 GF, 8 GA
Neither attack has shown enough consistency to justify predicting a high-scoring match.
Parma's home advantage makes them slightly more likely to score first, but Genoa have enough attacking ability to respond.
The statistical profile strongly suggests a low-scoring contest.
Prediction: Parma 1–1 Genoa
9. Juventus vs Atalanta
Sunday, September 20 — 17:00 CEST
Prediction: Juventus 2–1 Atalanta
Juventus are coming off one of the most dramatic defeats of the season: a 3–2 loss at Sassuolo after Edon Zhegrova scored twice, only for Sassuolo to score the decisive goal in the final moments.
That result dropped Juventus to eighth with seven points.
Atalanta are 11th with six points and have an exactly balanced goal record — five scored and five conceded.
The important factor here is Juventus' response.
They have already demonstrated that they can control games defensively, but their attack has been inconsistent. Zhegrova's two goals against Sassuolo, however, provide an important attacking positive.
Playing at Allianz Stadium should also change the dynamics considerably.
Atalanta should create chances, but Juventus' home advantage and need to respond after the Sassuolo defeat make a narrow home win the most likely scoreline in my model.
Prediction: Juventus 2–1 Atalanta
10. Milan vs Lecce
Sunday, September 20 — 19:45 CEST
Prediction: Milan 2–0 Lecce
Milan have made a solid, if not spectacular, start: eight points from four games, unbeaten, with seven goals scored and four conceded.
Lecce have six points but have conceded seven.
Milan's biggest strength is their ability to control matches without giving away excessive chances. Their 1–1 draw against Juventus was followed by a more positive run, and the squad has enough attacking quality to punish Lecce's defensive errors.
The main issue is that Milan have European commitments around this period, so squad rotation and fatigue are considerations.
Still, at San Siro, Milan should have too much territorial control.
Prediction: Milan 2–0 Lecce
📊 My Week 5 Final Score Predictions
# Match My Prediction
1 Monza vs Sassuolo 1–2
2 Bologna vs Torino 1–1
3 Udinese vs Cagliari 1–1
4 Roma vs Inter 1–1
5 Venezia vs Lazio 0–2
6 Fiorentina vs Napoli 1–2
7 Frosinone vs Como 1–2
8 Parma vs Genoa 1–1
9 Juventus vs Atalanta 2–1
10 Milan vs Lecce 2–0
Key statistical themes
Roma vs Inter: both 4–0–0; Roma's defense vs Inter's attack is the round's major matchup.
Como: 10 points and three consecutive league wins.
Cagliari: 9 points and only two goals conceded.
Lazio: 10 points with only three goals conceded.
Venezia: still winless with 11 goals conceded.
Juventus: coming off the 3–2 Sassuolo defeat and now face Atalanta at home.
Napoli: six points and recovering from a three-match losing streak, but with several important injury concerns.
Bologna: managerial change to Raffaele Palladino just four days before the Torino match adds significant uncertainty.