Since Matchday 4 has now been played, here's the updated picture heading into Matchday 5 — all times in CEST.
Standings snapshot after Matchday 4: Roma and Inter are the last unbeaten teams, both on 12 points. Lazio and Como sit close behind on 10, with Cagliari on 9. At the bottom, Venezia are still winless (0 pts), joined by Bologna, Genoa, Parma, and Monza on just 1 point each.
Friday, September 18
Monza vs Sassuolo — 20:45
Predicted: Monza 1–2 Sassuolo
Monza remain winless (0-1-3) despite a fight against Lecce last round, while Sassuolo have looked sharper in attack, coming off a 3-2 upset of Juventus. The model favors the visitors (41.1% vs 31.4%, draw 27.5%), and I expect Sassuolo's improved attacking form to carry them to their second win.
Saturday, September 19
Bologna vs Torino — 15:00
Predicted: Bologna 2–1 Torino
Bologna are still searching for their first win (0-1-3) but get a home boost in the model (48.8% vs 24.1%) against a Torino side that's also struggled to find consistency. Bologna's underlying numbers (competitive in every match so far) suggest this is the round they finally break through.
Udinese vs Cagliari — 15:00
Predicted: Udinese 2–1 Cagliari
Udinese were roasted 5-3 by Inter but have generally been solid at home, and the model gives them a clear edge (42.7% vs 28.4%). Cagliari have been in good form (3W-1L, including a win over Atalanta) and will make this competitive, but I lean toward Udinese bouncing back at home.
Roma vs Inter — 18:00
Predicted: Roma 2–2 Inter
The match of the round — the league's only two unbeaten sides go head-to-head, both on 12 points. The model has this essentially a coin flip (35.6% vs 37.3%, draw 27.1%), and both teams have been ruthless in attack recently (Roma's 2-0 over Torino, Inter's 5-3 over Udinese). I expect a genuine title-contender clash and a share of the spoils, though either side could easily nick a win.
Venezia vs Lazio — 20:45
Predicted: Venezia 1–3 Lazio
Venezia remain the league's only winless side, while Lazio have been excellent (3W-1D, 10 pts). The model backs Lazio clearly (48.1% vs 25.5%). Expect Lazio's attacking quality to be too much for a Venezia side still hunting its first points.
Sunday, September 20
Fiorentina vs Napoli — 12:30
Predicted: Fiorentina 1–2 Napoli
Fiorentina finally got off the mark with a 4-2 win over Venezia, but Napoli have won two straight (including a clean sheet over Bologna) and get the model's edge (42.6% vs 29.6%). I expect Napoli's improving form to edge a competitive fixture.
Frosinone vs Como — 15:00
Predicted: Frosinone 1–3 Como
Como have been one of the league's best stories so far (3W-1D, 10 pts, including wins over Genoa and Parma), and the model makes them heavy favorites here (62.9% vs 17.3%). Frosinone have shown resilience but lack the firepower to keep pace with Como's attack.
Parma vs Genoa — 15:00
Predicted: Parma 1–1 Genoa
A relegation-zone six-pointer between two sides still hunting their first win. The model gives Genoa a slight edge on the road (38.2% vs 30.9%, draw 30.9%), but both teams have shown they can be defensively fragile. I'll call a draw between two evenly matched, struggling sides.
Juventus vs Atalanta — 18:00
Predicted: Juventus 2–1 Atalanta
Juventus will want to bounce back after their surprise loss to Sassuolo, and the model has them as clear favorites at home (56.4% vs 19.6%). Atalanta have been inconsistent (2W-2L) since their strong start, including a loss to Cagliari last round. Expect Juventus to reassert themselves.
AC Milan vs Lecce — 20:45
Predicted: AC Milan 3–0 Lecce
This is the most lopsided fixture of the round (76.9% vs 8%). Milan are unbeaten (2W-2D) and have strong attacking depth, while Lecce have been leaky on the road. Expect a comfortable Milan win to close out the matchday.
Quick summary table:
Match Predicted Score
Monza vs Sassuolo 1–2
Bologna vs Torino 2–1
Udinese vs Cagliari 2–1
Roma vs Inter 2–2
Venezia vs Lazio 1–3
Fiorentina vs Napoli 1–2
Frosinone vs Como 1–3
Parma vs Genoa 1–1
Juventus vs Atalanta 2–1
AC Milan vs Lecce 3–0
As always, these lean on current form, standings, and model win probabilities — the Roma-Inter clash in particular could go either way given how evenly matched both sides have been all season.